ASSAIDXThe short version
PT Adi Sarana Armada Tbk
PT Adi Sarana Armada is an Indonesian corporate fleet-rental, logistics and used-vehicle group. Owner earnings are at a record after a margin-led recovery, yet the shares sit about 84% below their 2021 peak.
Across 2026 the shares slid from about Rp1,245 in February to a Rp520 low in June, recovering to Rp635 by mid-July — roughly 47% lower on the year.
Rp635
Share price
Rp2.3tn
Market cap
5.6×
Trailing P/E
7.9%
Dividend yield
SwipeScroll▾
The statements
Record profit, built on margin, carried by a heavy balance sheet
Margin ladder (%)
Gross, operating and net-to-owners margins, as reported (9M2025 is nine months).
- Revenue. Rp4.44tn (FY2023) to Rp4.96tn (FY2024), reaching roughly Rp6.0tn in FY2025 as a pruned courier arm gave way to a growing rental, logistics and used-vehicle core.
- Profit. Operating profit more than doubled to Rp705bn in FY2024 and hit Rp814bn in nine months of 2025; owner EPS tripled from Rp28.68 to Rp94.44.
- The counterweight. Growth rides an asset-heavy, ~Rp4.2tn-levered balance sheet, and roughly 29% of group profit now accrues to minority partners in the subsidiaries.
Segment economics
The debt sits where the returns don't
Profit vs ownership, 9M2025
| Segment | Op profit (Rp bn) | ASSA owns |
|---|---|---|
| Rental & driver | 247 | ~100% |
| Logistics (AnterAja) | 365 | 49.5% |
| Used-vehicle sales | 144 | 77.6% |
| Auction (JBA) | 61 | ~71.5% |
The wholly-owned rental core carries ~96% of the group's fixed assets and bank debt; the profit lives in the part-owned engines.
- ASSA fully owns the rental fleet that carries ~96% of the group's ~Rp4.2tn, 100%-floating debt yet barely breaks even pre-tax after allocated interest, while only part-owning the logistics and used-vehicle engines that earn the profit — and each 100bps of Bank Indonesia's 2026 tightening removes about Rp50.6bn of pre-tax profit (~12% of FY2024 PBT) from that near-breakeven core.
- The look-through. Minorities took ~29% of group profit in 9M2025, so owner-attributable earnings sit well below the headline group line the low P/E is built on.
- The offset. The interest split is illustrative; the fleet is resellable collateral sold at a gain, net debt is falling and interest cover rose to 6.98× heading into the tightening.
Cash conversion
The 7.9% dividend is a fleet-cycle lever, not a coupon
Owner free cash flow vs dividends paid (Rp bn)
FY2024 owner free cash flow covered barely a quarter of the dividend; by 9M2025 it covered it nearly threefold.
- The ~7.9% dividend that props up ASSA's 'margin of safety at ~1.07x book' was covered only ~27% by FY2024 owner free cash flow (~Rp41bn against a Rp149.6bn dividend), the rest funded by fresh borrowing and a cash drawdown — a fleet-cycle lever, not a coupon.
- The counter. The FY2024 shortfall came in a fleet-growth year alongside Rp152.2bn of pausable associate capital; in 9M2025 owner free cash flow of ~Rp379bn covered the Rp116.4bn payout nearly three times.
- What settles it. Whether full-year FY2025 owner free cash flow covers the raised Rp184.6bn dividend, and whether the Rp1,070.5bn cash balance survives the heavy fourth-quarter capex season.
What ASSA is
One company, three different businesses
External revenue by segment, FY2024 (Rp bn)
Rental & driverRp bn1,90338%
Logistics (AnterAja)Rp bn1,92139%
Used-vehicle salesRp bn86417%
Auction (JBA)Rp bn2655%
By external revenue the group is now split roughly evenly between mobility, logistics and used vehicles.
- Rental. Corporate fleet leasing with drivers — a fleet near 30,000 vehicles on multi-year contracts with blue-chip clients, the steady, contracted cash core.
- Logistics. AnterAja last-mile parcels plus CargoShare B2B transport — now the largest external-revenue segment after a deliberate pivot from the e-commerce price war to bulk freight.
- Used vehicles. JBA auctions and the Caroline marketplace, run through separately listed Autopedia, monetise fleet cars at the end of their rental life.
The price
A fallen star: down about 84% from its 2021 peak
Daily close, Indonesia Stock Exchange, 2026.
- The disconnect. ASSA peaked near Rp4,000 in October 2021 on pandemic-era enthusiasm for its courier arm; at Rp635 it trades about 84% below that, and ~47% lower across 2026 alone.
- Falling on good news. The 2026 leg down came as FY2025 group profit rose 81% and the dividend was raised — the price and the earnings moving in opposite directions.
- A technical hand. Part of the 2026 sell-off traces to ASSA's removal from the MSCI Small Cap indexes in May, which mechanically forces passive selling regardless of results.
The profit engine
The recovery is one segment turning
Logistics operating profit (Rp bn)
AnterAja swung from a Rp148bn loss to profit — about 96% of the group's FY2023–FY2024 operating-profit rise.
- Loss to lead. Logistics moved from a Rp148bn operating loss (FY2023) to Rp216bn profit (FY2024) to Rp365bn in nine months of 2025 — now the single largest segment, ahead of rental's Rp247bn.
- Asset-light. That profit runs on just Rp61bn of fixed assets and Rp155bn of debt — a near-net-cash business, unlike the fleet core.
- The catch. It is 49.5%-owned and sits in a live parcel price war; the report's first tripwire is logistics profit holding above ~Rp400bn a year through a full cycle.
Debt and solvency
Heavy debt, but structured to survive
Leverage, deleveraging (parent covenants)
| Period | DER (max 5×) | Interest cover (min 2×) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 1.82× | 4.57× |
| FY2024 | 1.78× | 5.64× |
| 9M2025 | 1.66× | 6.98× |
Parent debt-to-equity and interest-service coverage, both well inside covenant limits and improving.
- Backed and laddered. The ~Rp4.2tn of debt is secured on resellable vehicles, spread across a dozen banks, and laddered so only ~Rp1.1tn falls due within a year — now nearly matched by Rp1.07tn of cash.
- Deleveraging. Net debt fell from Rp3.43tn to Rp3.13tn over the past year; net debt to EBITDA sits near 2.2×, moderate for an asset-backed leasing model.
- The live risks. Refinancing dependence and a 100%-floating book: each 100bps of rate rise costs about Rp50.6bn of pre-tax profit — not insolvency, but a variable to watch.
Ownership and pay
Founder-run, and buying into the fall
9.3%
Founder-CEO stakeRp218bn — added shares into the sell-off
~53%
Insiders + affiliates
46.6%
Public float
Rp37.3bn
FY2024 board pay, all cash~15% of owner profit
- Skin in the game. President Director Prodjo Sunarjanto has run ASSA since its 2012 listing and holds Rp218bn of stock — many multiples of his pay — and edged his stake up as the price fell.
- Clean and aligned. Pay is modest, cash-only with no options, and related-party dealings are immaterial and shrinking (2.2% of revenue) — an owner-operator, not an extractor.
- The counter. The Triputra patriarch's personal 5.12% stake slipped below the disclosure line during the sell-off, and a ~53% block leaves minorities as price-takers.
Industry tailwinds
Real demand, unevenly useful
Tailwind by pillar
| Pillar | Tailwind | Main caveat |
|---|---|---|
| Corporate rental | Strong (GDP-plus) | Crowded: TRAC, MPM, Blue Bird |
| B2B logistics | Strong (+8.8%) | Execution-dependent |
| E-commerce express | Weak on margin | Price war; ASSA has pivoted |
| Used-vehicle digital | Moderate | Astra / OLXmobbi entering |
Indonesia's transport & warehousing sector grew 8.78% in 2025, ahead of 5.11% GDP.
- The core is defensible. Corporate fleet outsourcing and B2B freight scale with formal-sector activity, growing at or above GDP — the demand under the steady rental and logistics lines is real.
- The loud tailwind pays least. E-commerce parcels are a rock-bottom-price war; ASSA's turnaround came from retreating to bulk B2B, not from riding the e-commerce boom.
- New competition. Astra, with Toyota capital, is building a rival used-car marketplace (OLXmobbi) — the digitalization vector is no longer ASSA's to grow into unopposed.
Valuation
Cheap on every lens a value buyer uses
5.6×
Price / FY2025 owner earnings
1.07×
Price / owners' equity
5.3×
EV / FY2025 EBIT
7.9%
Dividend yield
- An 18% earnings yield. At Rp635 the market pays 5.6× FY2025 owner earnings of ~Rp418bn and roughly book (1.07×) for the Rp2.19tn of equity attributable to ASSA's own shareholders.
- Cheaper than the peer. Blue Bird, the nearest listed comparator, trades at 6.9× earnings and ~5× EBITDA on a similar transport-and-rental model; ASSA is below it on both.
- But not below net assets. This is cheapness at roughly book, not a discount to it — the margin of safety has to come from the parts, not the whole.
Sum of the parts
Two hard marks cover three-quarters of the price
What Rp635 buys (Rp bn)
Autopedia stake (77.6%, at market)Rp bn63227%
Rental fleet, net of its debtRp bn1,13348%
Everything else (implied)Rp bn57925%
A listed Autopedia stake and the net-book fleet cover ~75% of the Rp2.34tn market value.
- A market-tested floor. A 77.6% stake in listed Autopedia (~Rp632bn at its own price) and the rental fleet net of its debt (~Rp1,133bn of resellable metal) together mark ~75% of the market cap.
- The engine, nearly free. The remaining ~Rp0.58tn is all the market pays for ASSA's 49.5% of AnterAja — roughly 1.2× its annualised operating profit, a distress price on the segment driving the recovery.
- One honest caveat. The Autopedia mark rests on an external market price not in the audited record; the fleet mark is book value, if anything conservative given disposals sell at a gain.
Three ways it resolves
An asset-backed floor against a profit-holding upside
Illustrative value per share (Rp)
Bear — logistics fades, rates stay high
Rp478
Base — re-rate to a cheap peer multiple
Rp781
Bull — logistics holds, SOTP works out
Rp1,200
Illustrative, not price targets. The bear anchor is the two hard SOTP marks alone.
- Bounded downside. Crediting only the listed Autopedia stake and the net-book fleet implies about Rp478 — roughly 25% below today, floored by resellable collateral and low bankruptcy risk.
- Asymmetric upside. The bull case needs no heroics — just AnterAja holding its profit; on a going-concern logistics multiple the parts sit ~45% above the price, toward the Rp1,335 street target.
- What tips it. Two variables moved against the case in 2026 — Bank Indonesia raised rates 100bps, and the profit still belongs disproportionately to minorities.
What to watch
A cheap, founder-backed recovery with an asset floor — against a rising rate bill and profit owed to others.
- 01Logistics operating profit — sustaining above ~Rp400bn a year (FY2025 Note 34) keeps the re-rating intact; a fall back toward the rental core is the bear case.
- 02Finance charges — rising against flat or lower debt confirms Bank Indonesia's 2026 reversal is biting; each +100bps ≈ Rp50.6bn of pre-tax profit.
- 03Full-year FY2025 owner free cash flow covering the raised Rp184.6bn dividend, with the Rp1,070.5bn cash balance surviving fourth-quarter capex.
- 04The ~Rp1.1tn of bank debt due within a year rolled at a manageable rate, with no covenant waiver at the parent.
This is the short version of a nine-chapter study built from ASSA's audited filings — the full report carries the evidence, the counter-arguments and what would change the read.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-17 · For information, not investment advice.